As of November 2026, the U.S. housing market is still slow but showing a small break in mortgage rates: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 7.18% on November 5, 2026, its third straight weekly decline, while sales remain below a 4 million annual pace, inventory keeps rising, and national prices are barely up from a year earlier. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate on October 28, NAR's latest closed-sale reading is still September's 3.99 million annual pace, and Realtor.com's October report shows active listings up 7.4% from a year earlier with more than one in five homes taking a price cut [1][2][5][9].
If you own a home in Portland, Salem, Eugene, Bend, or Medford, those national numbers matter before year-end. The same rates, the same buyer budgets, and the same rising supply are shaping what Oregon buyers will pay through the holidays. This post walks through the latest national figures released into early November 2026 and what they mean for Oregon sellers and buyers planning a move this winter.
Data as of November 5, 2026. Figures cover the November 5 Freddie Mac weekly survey; October 2026 listing and inventory data from Realtor.com; September 2026 existing-home sales, pending sales, new-home sales, and Oregon sales (NAR, Census/HUD, Redfin, RMLS); and August 2026 price indexes (FHFA, Case-Shiller), as noted for each source. NAR's October existing-home sales report is scheduled for November 12, 2026.
Where Are Mortgage Rates in Early November 2026?
Rates remain the biggest force in the market, but the weekly trend has eased. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before and from 7.32% on October 22. A year earlier the 30-year averaged 6.22%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60% the prior week and up from 5.50% a year earlier [1]. Freddie Mac publishes a new reading every Thursday.
The Federal Reserve is part of the rate story. On October 28, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote. The statement said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and that "inflation remains elevated," while two members preferred a quarter-point hike [9]. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its decisions and outlook move the bond yields lenders follow. Mortgage rates have drifted lower for three weeks even after that hold, which is the near-term backdrop for Oregon buyers shopping this month.
What does that mean in dollars? Using our own rounded math, principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year loan is about $2,710 a month at 7.18%, compared with about $2,455 at 6.22%. That is roughly $255 more a month, or about $3,060 a year, for the same loan size than a year earlier. Realtor.com noted that 30-year rates averaged about 7.33% across October and that the jump from a year earlier cut purchasing power by roughly 10% for a shopper on a fixed budget [5]. Even with this week's dip, rates are still more than a full point higher than last November.
How Did Existing-Home Sales and Pending Sales Do?
NAR's October 13 report — still the latest closed-sale reading as of November 5 — showed existing-home sales rising 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, but down 2.2% from September 2025 [2]. Sales fell year over year in all four regions. In the West, which includes Oregon, sales were down 5.2% from a year earlier and the regional median price was $613,600, down 0.3% [2].
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said August and September "marked the two slowest months for home sales this year," and that "home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers" [2]. NAR will release October existing-home sales on November 12, 2026.
A few other details from the September closed-sale report still matter for Oregon:
- Days on market: a median of 33 days nationally, up from 31 in August and unchanged from a year earlier.
- First-time buyers: 31% of sales, up from 30% a year earlier.
- Cash sales: 27% of transactions, down from 30% a year earlier.
- Investors and second-home buyers: 20% of sales, up from 15% in August.
The forward look is softer. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for September, released October 20, fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, with declines in every region. The West posted the steepest drops: −9.2% month over month and −15.0% year over year [8]. Yun tied the pullback to fast-rising mortgage rates and said buyers and sellers may be holding back until rates move favorably.
New construction is also slow. The Census Bureau and HUD reported on October 27 that new single-family home sales ran at an annual rate of 676,000 in September, 5.3% below a year earlier, with 8.4 months of new-home supply. The median new-home price was $400,400, down 3.9% from September 2025 [3]. The next Census/HUD new-sales release is November 25.
Is Housing Inventory Still Rising Into Winter?
Yes. NAR counted 1.60 million existing homes for sale at the end of September, up 4.6% from a year earlier, equal to a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with 4.5 months a year ago [2].
Realtor.com's October 2026 monthly report, released November 4, shows the inventory climb continuing into fall. Active listings rose 7.4% from a year earlier to about 1.18 million homes — the fourth straight month of faster year-over-year growth and the narrowest gap to pre-pandemic inventory levels Realtor.com has recorded since the pandemic (about 6.6% below typical 2017–2019 levels). New listings fell 7.5% year over year, the steepest drop since September 2023, while 20.5% of active listings had a price cut in October, the highest October share since 2022 and only a hair below September's four-year high [5]. In the West, active listings were up 9.0% and 21.6% of listings took a price cut.
Pending activity on Realtor.com also cooled: the stock of homes under contract fell 10.5% year over year, and contract signings fell 17%, the steepest annual drop since early 2023 [5]. More supply plus fewer qualified buyers means homes take longer to sell, and buyers have more room to negotiate — the shift Oregon sellers should plan around heading into the holidays.
Are Home Prices Still Going Up Nationally?
Barely on closed sales, and list prices are slipping. Major measures released into late October and early November show small gains or soft declines:
- NAR median existing-home price: $417,500 in September, up 1.3% from a year earlier [2].
- FHFA House Price Index: up 0.3% in August and 2.4% from August 2025, released October 27, 2026. The Mountain division had the smallest 12-month gain among the nine census divisions, at 0.5% [4]. FHFA's next report, with September and third-quarter data, is due November 24.
- S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Index: up 2.1% year over year in August. S&P said home values have fallen in real, inflation-adjusted terms for 15 straight months, with August inflation at 3.4%. Seattle was the weakest of the 20 tracked metros at −2.0%, while the Portland index rose just 0.34% from a year earlier [6].
- Realtor.com median list price: $415,000 in October, down 2.2% from a year earlier and down 1.0% from September — the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year list-price declines [5].
In short, asking prices are easing while closed-sale prices are still slightly higher than a year ago. That gap is where negotiating room shows up for buyers — and where overpriced listings stall for sellers.
How Does Oregon Compare to the National Market?
Oregon is following the national slowdown, with prices roughly flat, sales down a bit, and price cuts more common.
Statewide. Redfin's September 2026 data put Oregon's median sale price at $504,949, up 1.0% from a year earlier, with 3,772 homes sold, down 5.4%. Homes took a median of 44 days to sell, and 22.9% of homes had a price drop, up from 21.0% a year earlier. Oregon had 20,214 homes for sale, about four months of supply [7].
Longer-term prices. FHFA's second-quarter 2026 state rankings showed Oregon home values up only 0.29% over the past year, 47th of the 50 states and the District of Columbia [10]. FHFA's metro data for the same quarter showed Eugene-Springfield up 3.95%, Medford up 3.87%, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro up 1.39%, Bend up 0.65%, and Salem down 0.22% [10].
Portland metro. RMLS reported a September 2026 median sale price of $545,000 in the Portland metro, unchanged from a year earlier. Pending sales fell 17.9% from September 2025, inventory rose to 4.2 months, and total market time increased to 68 days [11]. The October RMLS report is typically mid-November, so those September figures are still the latest RMLS reading as of this writing. Realtor.com's October metro table showed Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro active listings up 9.6% from a year earlier, a median list price of $580,000 (down 3.2%), and about 30.6% of listings with a price cut — among the highest shares of the 50 largest metros [5].
In short, Oregon prices are holding better than many West Coast peers, but buyers are slower, choosier, and more likely to ask for a better deal than they were a year ago.
What the National News Means for Oregon Sellers Before Year-End
Price for Today's Buyers, Not Last Spring's
With national price cuts still above 20% of listings and more than one in five Oregon homes taking a price drop in September [5][7], an optimistic list price can cost you weeks. Base your price on recent closed sales in your neighborhood, not online estimates. Our guide to pricing your Oregon home right walks through the process.
Expect More Negotiation Into Winter
NAR's chief economist is telling sellers to expect price discounts and other incentives, and Realtor.com describes October as a pause for both buyers and sellers as rates stayed elevated [2][5]. Decide in advance which repairs, credits, or rate buydowns you would accept. Our guide to negotiating home sale offers in Oregon and our seller concessions and rate buydowns post walk through the options.
Your Selling Costs Matter More When Prices Are Flat
When prices are not rising, every dollar you spend to sell comes straight out of your equity. On Oregon's September median of $504,949, a traditional 3% listing commission would be about $15,148. A Flat Fee MLS listing at $199 to $1,099 would save roughly $14,049 to $14,949 of that listing-side cost. Even our top Discount Full Service tier ($999 + 0.5%) would come to about $3,524, a savings of about $11,624. Many sellers also budget for the buyer's agent, since traditional totals have often run 5–6% (listing plus buyer's agent). Under today's rules, buyer's agent pay is set in the buyer's written agreement with their agent and may be negotiated with the seller in the offer. Run your own numbers with our savings calculator.
Plan for a Longer Timeline Before the Holidays
With Portland-area market time at 68 days in September and statewide days on market at 44, give yourself slack if you are also buying your next home. Winter showings slow further; pricing correctly from day one matters more than waiting for a spring rebound that may still face rates above 7%.
What the National News Means for Oregon Buyers
You Have More Choices and More Leverage
Rising inventory, frequent price cuts, and weaker pending sales mean you may not need to waive inspection or financing contingencies to compete. Listings that have been sitting — especially in Portland, where roughly three in ten Realtor.com listings had a price cut in October — are worth a closer look [5]. For Oregon-specific prices and days on market by metro, see our Oregon metro housing market update and our fall 2026 statewide update.
Rate-Proof Your Budget
Rates are still nearly a full point higher than a year ago even after three weekly declines [1]. Get pre-approved, ask your lender how a seller-paid buydown would change your payment, and leave room in your budget if rates bounce after the next Fed meeting or a hot inflation print.
Get Help With the Contract
If you want professional help with the offer, negotiation, and deadlines, our flat-fee buyer representation service puts a Realty Net, LLC buyer's agent on your side for a fixed dollar fee instead of a percentage.
How By Owner Oregon Can Help
By Owner Oregon, brokered by Realty Net, LLC, has helped Oregon homeowners sell since 2001, with 4,700+ homes sold. In a market where buyers negotiate harder and winter timelines stretch, keeping more of your equity starts with choosing the right level of help:
- Flat Fee MLS ($199–$1,099): your home goes on the MLS that serves your area while you handle showings and offers.
- Agent Assist ($499–$1,099, plus $700 at closing): add licensed broker coaching on pricing, offers, and negotiation.
- Discount Full Service: $299 + 1%, $599 + 0.75%, or $999 + 0.5% for full broker representation.
There is no compliance fee at closing on any package. SellerHQ™ with BuyerLink™ is built into every By Owner Oregon package, so buyer calls from Zillow and Realtor.com reach you and you can manage your listing in one place. Compare packages and pricing to see which fits your sale.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are mortgage rates in November 2026?
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the prior week but up from 6.22% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type, and points, so compare quotes from several lenders.
Did the Federal Reserve cut rates in October 2026?
No. On October 28, 2026, the Fed held its federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10–2 vote, saying inflation remains elevated. Mortgage rates still edged lower in the following weeks. The Fed sets short-term rates, not mortgage rates, but its outlook can move the bond yields lenders use.
Is the U.S. housing market slowing into winter 2026?
Yes. NAR reported September existing-home sales at a 3.99 million annual pace, down 2.2% from a year earlier, and pending sales fell 11.3% year over year. Realtor.com's October report showed active listings up 7.4% and contract signings down 17%, so buyers have more choices and more room to negotiate.
Are home prices falling in Oregon?
Not overall on closed sales. Redfin put Oregon's September 2026 median sale price at $504,949, up 1.0% from a year earlier, and RMLS showed Portland's median unchanged at $545,000. Price cuts are more common, though: 22.9% of Oregon homes had a price drop in September, and about 30.6% of Portland Realtor.com listings cut price in October.
Should I sell my Oregon home now or wait until spring 2027?
It depends on your timeline and local market. Realtor.com describes October as a pause for buyers and sellers, and rates are still above 7%. With inventory rising into winter, pricing correctly from day one usually matters more than waiting. Compare recent local sales and your net proceeds before you decide.
How much can an Oregon seller save with a flat fee listing?
On Oregon's September 2026 median of $504,949, a 3% listing commission is about $15,148. By Owner Oregon's Flat Fee MLS packages cost $199 to $1,099, saving roughly $14,049 to $14,949 on the listing side. Buyer's agent pay is negotiated separately through the buyer's agreement and the offer.
Market data changes quickly. The figures above come from the sources below for the periods shown, and the payment and savings examples are rounded illustrations, not loan quotes or valuations. This article is general information about the housing market, not financial or tax advice.
Sources
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates as of November 5, 2026: freddiemac.com/pmms
- National Association of REALTORS®, "Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report," October 13, 2026 (September 2026 data): nar.realtor
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, "Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026," October 27, 2026: census.gov
- Federal Housing Finance Agency, "FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in August; Up 2.4 Percent from Last Year," October 27, 2026 (August 2026 data): fhfa.gov
- Realtor.com Economic Research, "October 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Buyers and Sellers Hit Pause as Rates Surge," November 4, 2026 (October 2026 data): realtor.com
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in August 2026," October 27, 2026 (August 2026 data): prnewswire.com
- Redfin, Oregon Housing Market (September 2026 data): redfin.com
- National Association of REALTORS®, "Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September," October 20, 2026 (September 2026 data): nar.realtor
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement," October 28, 2026: federalreserve.gov
- Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA HPI Summary Tables, state and metropolitan area indexes, 2026 Q2: fhfa.gov
- RMLS, Market Action Report, Portland Metro, September 2026 reporting period: rmlsweb.com
